Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Euro Worries

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THere are rumours currently that there is disorder within the ECB admist disputes over policies. The Euro has lost over 3 cents to Sterling over the past couple of weeks and even though there has been Sterling strength, a large reason for the gains is off the back of Euro weakness. Jean Claude Trichet announced Euro interest rates are going to be kept on hold and may even need to be cut! A lot of Euro strength over the past few months has been as a results of the interest rate hikes and with this now removed from the equation it looks likely the Euro is heading for more worrying times.

There has also been a slow down in the German and French growth which with all of the sovereign debt worries isn’t helping matters. Although there has been a lot of negative Euro data it is worth noting the pound is still liable to sharp drops if any negative UK data comes out or any further talks of QE is released. Keep an eye out for any talks of QE at next Wednesday Bank of England minutes.

To be kept updated on how to maximise your currency exchange requirements please contact me on asp@currencies.co.uk

Pound Sterling Forecast

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Consumer confidence data will be released today and retail sales figures are out on Tuesday this is the week which will show exactly how the public are feeling and reacting to their own current financial circumstances. While you may not think this data would be as important as last weeks Bank of England meeting the releases can often carry just as much weight in the markets. I expect to see both figures coming out slightly below expectation and the pound to lose up to 1 or 2 cents against other major currencies as a result. If you don’t have an account manager who can let you know how to approach these trades please e-mail me via: asp@currencies.co.uk

BoE Interest Rate Decision

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The Bank of England will be releasing their interest rate decision today and by all predictions we are going to see the rates be kept on hold. At the last interest rate decision there was a 9-0 vote against raising interest rates however with the UK growth becoming stagnant and unemployment rife the only option the BoE seem to have is another round of QE. Quantative Easing explained simply is when a central bank injects money into the economy by buying bank debt in the hope they will start lending to businesses and individuals therefore getting the wheels turning and the economy growing. My major concern is in the last 2 rounds of QE the banks haven’t really increased their borrowing which has caused the economy to remain stagnant.

With these uncertain economic times please get in touch with me at asp@currencies.co.uk and I’ll explain the different contract types we have available to avoid being subject to these volatile markets.

SNB Pledge Unlimited Currency Purchases

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In an unheard of move, the SNB (Swiss National Bank) shocked markets as they set a minimum level for the Swiss Franc against the Euro at a rate of 1.20. They have done this by pledging to pruchase unlimited ammounts of currency to peg the currency against the Euro. The shock move saw staggering market movement with the Swiss Franc moving 9% against the pound in 10 minutes! This ammount of movement would have meant if you had been buying CHF250k you would have saved £14,400 in less than 10 minutes!

This kind of market movement is unprecedented and highlights how important it is to have an account manager to keep an eye on the markets for you. If you don’t have an account manager please contact me on asp@currencies.co.uk to be allocated one.

ZAR Volatility

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South African Rand (ZAR) is highly volatile due to its links to the supply and demand/ investor interest in commodoties such as gold. Friday saw over 1.4% weakness on the GBP/ZAR as a result of fulctuating gold prices. Gold has been more volatile recently than in a long time and this is as a result of investors looking for “safe havens” such as gold and the Swiss Franc to protect them. If you have a requirement in any of the comodity based currencies please get in touch with me to achieve the best rates of exchange at asp@currencies.co.uk.