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By James Matthews

US Pending Home Sales are due for release today at 15.30 GMT and are a leading indicator of trends in the Housing Market in the States. As the Housing Industry has led America out of the vast majority of the recessions in living memory it is particularly important as any strength in this figure lends more support to the strength of the global economy.

November was very encouraging in the US Housing industry and this figure was released at 10.4%, this month the rise it’s not expected to be as staggering and is predicted to be released at around the 2% mark.

I wouldn’t be surprised however if this figure in actual fact came out worse than expected and for this to cause some weakness for the Greenback. Typically December is an extremely quiet month in the housing markets and this is bound to come across on MoM figures and bearing in mind the positive figure from last month I could certainly see December figures not showing as much encouragement.

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By James Matthews

It has proved a volatile year for the Greenback throughout 2010 and with so much uncertainty in the market I wouldn’t expect this to change in 2011. The Dollar opened the year at 0.62 against the Pound and just under 0.70 against the Euro and has moved 12.7% and 22% against these currency respectively.

Recently the Dollar has strengthened through some risk aversion caused by the Irish bailout. This strength is likely to continue into the new year and I would expect to see some Dollar strength against the Euro throughout January as doubts regarding Spain and more immediately Portugal resurface.

I could also foresee some strength for the Greenback against Sterling as the UK introduce a rise in VAT which should dent consumer confidence. This is likely to compound Sterling woes when retail sales are released dissapointingly next quarter, following inclement weather in the UK.

This thought is echoed by top rated Forecaster Standard Chartered Bank, who forecast that the USD / EUR could go as high as 0.833 by June next year. It is worrying for anyone with their funds in Euro’s, especially considering the American economy is far from the strongest moving into 2011.

Against most other major currencies though I would expect the USD to weaken including, perhaps controversially the Pound by the end of 2011. In my opinion although the UK economy is not overly strong, the budget cuts are bound to kick in and begin to get the economic ducks of the UK, so to speak, in line. I would predict that 2011 will be a tough year for the US Dollar against all major currencies with exception to the Euro, and some short term strength against Sterling in the front end of next year.

If you have your funds in US Dollars and are looking at an imminent requirement it may be worth looking forward as it may be a very difficult year ahead for the American economy. Fill out an enquiry form and a member of the findcurrency team will be in touch.

By James Matthews

The Find Currency team would like to wish all our readers a very merry Christmas and a happy 2011!

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Merry Christmas everybody!!!

By James Matthews

As predicted in the last FindCurrency.com post, Retail Sales figures were released better than expected on Tuesday 14th at 0.8% Month on Month rather than 0.6%. Although this was not as large an improvement as the October figure it still helped to strengthen the US Dollar which opened the day at 1.5541 against Sterling.

US Housing Starts data is released at 13.30 today (UK time) and could further add to US Dollar strength if released better than expected. However I think that perhaps the Dollar has been a little overpriced in the markets over the last few days given the tricky position of their economy and worrying Unemployment levels.

If you have funds in US Dollar it is a very attractive time to sell over the short term, the Dollar made gains over 1% against Sterling yesterday and depending on your thoughts of contagion in the EU it could also be a good time to look at purchasing Euros, given recent gains. Fill in one of our forms and a specialist Currency Broker will be in touch.

By James Matthews

Retail sales figures for November are due for release tomorrow and are expected MoM to show a small increase as they have done in 3 of the last 4 years during November. The increase is expected to be around 0.6% tomorrow, half as much as October figures at 1.2%.

With record figures for Black Friday reported this year in the States I wouldn’t be surprised if figures were released better than expected. Retail sales are particularly important in the run up to Christmas due to the disproportionate amount that is spent in the industry between November and the middle of January.

The Greenback was haunted by an increase in Risk Appetite yesterday and worries of a deal extending tax cuts in the USA. I would expect the Dollar could have a good day and retrace some of these losses tomorrow if Retail Sales figures are released better than expected giving investors a little bit of hope that the Dollar is a safer short term prospect as a currency.

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